Corn Commentary
Sept Corn closes 8 ¼ cents lower ($3.62 ½), Dec 8¼ cents lower ($3.76 ½) and March 7 ¾ cents lower ($3.88 ½)
August Chgo Ethanol closes 0.007 cents a gallon lower ($1.547), Sept 0.010 cents lower ($1.539)
USDA announces 100 K T. new crop corn sold to Colombia
Despite the continued downturn in corn crop conditions the flat price continues to move lower. The sharply lower soy complex provided considerable weight onto the corn market. Soybeans are not going to be 30 plus cents lower and not have an impact on the corn market. Near term forecasts calling for moisture will have a beneficial impact on the developing corn crop in the form of kernel development/filling. I continue to hear reports of poor pollination vs. reports of successful pollination. What’s interesting is that in recent days all I was mostly hearing were the poor pollination reports but today the calls were mostly about the good pollination reports. If I put all of these reports together it would suggest we still have a decent sized (not great) corn crop out there.
Interior river locations that feed the export market want corn; locations elsewhere not so much. The Gulf market is rising vs. levels we saw early last week. Corn spreads are not paying attention to the basis improvements as they continue to leak wider.
The last few days I’ve been talking about the $3.80-$3.75 level being good support for Dec corn. That level is now getting a severe test and so far the price action is showing no signs of rejection but rather acceptance. It will be interesting to see the upcoming private estimates for the USDA’s August 10th production report.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/02
Sept Corn: $3.56 – $3.69
Dec Corn: $3.70 – $3.83
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