Wheat Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Wheat

Wheat Commentary
Sept Chgo wheat closes 2 cents higher ($4.79 ¾), Dec 2 cents higher ($5.04 ¾) and March 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.25 ¼)
Sept KC Wheat closes 5 ½ cents higher ($4.81), Dec 15 cents higher ($4.99 ½) and March 14 ¾ cents higher ($5.17)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 498.1 K T. old crop vs. 350-550 K T. expected – now new crop vs. none expected
“Trying to hold/support” best describes Thursday’s wheat trade. Attempts to rally were seen early in the night trade and again early during the day session but they didn’t go very far. The one trade that did jump out at me was the buying of KC vs. selling Chgo. This spread is giving us an interim buy signal. Does this signal the wheat market is about ready for further stabilization and/or rally? The Wheat Quality Council tour summarized their finding this afternoon – they are pegging the US spring wheat yield at 38.1 bpa vs. 45.7 year ago vs. the 5-year average of 46.8. If there is any reaction to this we’ll see it start with tonight’s trade.
The interior cash market for SRW stays quiet with few if any changes being noted. The interior HRW cash market is softer and that holds true for its export market. Spreads in Chgo ran steady to a shade better but still rather wide. KC spreads were flat while also staying wide.
Have the US wheat markets made a low? They are holding but that’s about the best I can say for them. Yes, I would like to think recent lows achieved an oversold state but I have yet to see confirming price action that lows are in place. I know I can’t sell current values yet any buying is still thought to be speculation on my part.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/28
Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.75 – $4.87
Sept KC Wheat: $4.75 – $4.90

 

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