Corn Commentary
Sept Corn closes 7 ½ cents lower ($3.55 ¼), Dec 7 ¾ cents lower ($3.68 ½) and March 8 cents lower ($3.80 ¼)
Sept Chgo Ethanol closes 0.005 cents a gallon lower ($1.580), Oct 0.005 cents lower ($1.555)
So much for Monday’s price action trying to suggest we may have gone low enough for now as Tuesday’s trade craters into new lows for the current down move. Monday afternoon’s crop rating update suggesting the crop is improving (the GE% improved by 2% to 62% GE) was the catalyst for Tuesday’s ugly price action. For the foreseeable future I see little in the weather forecasts that would appear detrimental to crop development. With that said the path of least resistance is lower and the funds are jumping all over that.
Most cash markets are running steady to better as cash movement continues to be nearly non-existent. If the producer was an unwilling seller he sure isn’t interested in selling at $3.68. There was some fractional bull spreading in the nearby contracts but overall spreads remain relatively wide suggesting we are going to have burdensome old crop stocks to deal with when the new crop becomes ready.
So is the corn market oversold from a technical view – not that I can see. Dec corn is now looking at $3.65-$3.64 followed by the contract low at $3.58 ½. One would think that as we approach contract lows the selling would abate some but so far the recent price action (today’s trade in particular) suggests not.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/16
Sept Corn: $3.48 – $3.62 ½
Dec Corn: $3.62 ½ – $3.76 ½
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