Soybean Commentary
Sept Soybeans close 11 cents lower ($9.21 ¾), Nov 14 cents lower ($9.24 ¼) and March 14 ½ cents lower ($9.40 ¾)
Sept Meal closes $2.9 lower ($298.7), Dec $3.3 lower ($300.3) and March $3.2 lower ($302.9)
Sept Bean oil closes 71 pts lower ($32.71), Dec 73 pts lower ($33.04) and March 73 pts lower ($33.34)
USDA announces 264 K T. new crop soybeans sold; 132 K T. to China, 132 K T. to unknown
NOPA July Monthly Crush – 144.718 million bu. vs. 143.007 expected – Soybean Oil Stocks – 1.558 billion lbs. vs. 1.623 expected
Another round of soybean making rains for the state of Iowa has the soybean complex continuing to move lower. It remains to be seen if these rains that are occurring now will move into Illinois. Monday’s Iowa rains dissipated when they hit the River. Tuesday’s rain event is a much slower mover. Forecasts for the latter part of the week suggest rain will occur in Illinois. So far these rains are coming in a very timely manner – we have to remember that soybeans are either made or broken in the month of August. The friendly looking NOPA crush data fell on deaf ears as the lower than expected soybean oil stocks did nothing for that market (palm oil was collapsing overnight). The meal market continues to sag on slack demand despite crusher downtime.
Cash markets soybeans continue to show a steady to higher bias as movement is nearly nonexistent. September soybeans gained noticeably on November forward. Nov gained on its deferred contracts but to a much lesser extent. Meal spreads gained some fractional ground event though cash offers remain quite depressed looking.
So how low can you go? As much as I think $9.25 to $9.15 should represent some support for November beans the price action is not exhibiting that. As prices sag there is no sign of rejection; but rather acceptance. There is a Chinese delegation in Iowa this week but as of this writing no one thinks that whatever they say they will buy will have much impact on the market as the attitude is now that the crop is growing in size.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/16
Nov Beans: $9.15 – $9.38
Dec Meal; $294.0 – $305.0
Dec Bn Oil: $32.50 – $33.60
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