Corn Commentary
Sept Corn closes 12 ¾ cents higher ($3.42 ¼), Dec 12 ¼ cents higher ($3.57 ¾) and March 12 ¼ cents higher ($3.70 ½)
Sept Chgo Ethanol closes 0.058 cents a gallon higher ($1.547), Oct 0.062 cents higher ($1.488)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 188.4 K T. old crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected – 804.1 K T. new crop vs. 400-700 K T. expected
1st Notice Day Corn Deliveries – 844 vs. 1646 registrations
1, 2, 3, cover your shorts! Lighter than expected deliveries, month-end short covering, seasonal tendencies (2015 & 2016 saw similar rallies in the current time frame) and last but not least the first frost talk of the season all worked together for Thursday’s knee-jerk rally. Weekly export sales were deemed solid but not to the point of justifying today’s rally. New crop corn sales still trail last year’s pace by 4.9 M T. My slant on today’s sharp rally is that the spec trade got too short and ran into month end. Also, because the trade is so short the first bit of frost talk (called for mid next week) prompts further short covering. As to the frost talk this is the latest I’m hearing – if we see any it will be light in scattered areas of N. Dakota, the Rock Belts of Minnesota and Wisconsin and in the UP of Michigan. It appears doubtful it will get into the main growing area of the Midwest. On top of all this we have a 3-day weekend coming at us.
It appears that interior river locations have a renewed bid for corn and that is reflecting the Gulf’s renewed push for corn. Processors are standing in at unchanged. Corn spreads inched in fractionally which I think is more due to the short covering than anything else.
We saw a classic text book “key” reversal today; new contract lows, a big outside day closing above the previous day’s high and most important big volume. If the frost talk continues into tomorrow morning I would expect to see some follow short covering. Because of the 3-day weekend Monday night’s trade could bring us some high anxiety as to updated forecasts.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/01
Dec Corn: $3.52 – $3.63
March Corn: $3.65 – $3.76
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