Soybean Commentary
Sept Soybeans close 13 ¼ cents higher ($9.36 ¼), Nov 12 cents higher ($9.45 ¼) and March 12 cents higher ($9.64 ¼)
Sept Meal closes $1.9 higher ($294.3), Dec $1.8 higher ($299.5) and March $2.5 higher ($304.3)
Sept Bean oil closes 38 pts higher ($34.71), Dec 37 pts higher ($35.06) and March 38 pts higher ($35.42)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – 123.2 K T. old crop vs. -600+200 K T. expected; 1.559 M T. new crop vs. 1.000-1.500 M T. expected – Soybean Meal – 71.8 K T. old crop vs. 30-160 K T. expected; 348.9 K T. new crop vs. 75-150 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – 3.6 K T. old crop vs. 8-25 K T. expected; 4.2 K T. new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
USDA announces 132 K T. new crop soybeans sold to Unknown
Stats Can Canola Estimate – 18.20 M T. vs. 18.6 expected
1st Notice Day Soy Complex Deliveries – Soybeans – 1 vs. 559 registrations – Soybean Meal – 200 vs. 200 registrations – Soybean Oil – 667 vs. 2614 registrations
Virtually no soybean deliveries (just 1), frost talk for next week, seasonal tendencies and another week of strong export sales all worked together for Thursday’s rally. The strong weekly new crop sales are needed to continue as we trail last year’s pace by 7.250 M T. Adding to the underlying support is the less than desirable forecasts; cool and dry.
It seems as if the export program down at the Gulf is changing as it appears the Gulf wants corn but not soybeans. Interior river locations are dropping their respective soybean bids in reaction to the Gulf. Processors continue to stand in for beans. Soybean spreads, Nov forward, ran unchanged on the day. Offers to sell cash meal continue to look for buyers and not really finding any. Meal spreads continue to show a soft bias.
The price action in soybeans suggests they are not yet ready to roll over to the downside. Prices/closes below $9.30 in November beans should be viewed as the jumping off point for anyone wanting to be friendly to this particular market. Yesterday I talked about the meal market’s ability to stand in honoring the technical buy signal that occurred last week; this continues to hold true. If Dec meal can achieve price action above $302.5-$303.5 it would suggest further extension of the rally. Dec bean oil had been down flagging the past 4-5 days. It now looks like that downflagging motion could act as a springboard to challenge the $35.58 July high.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/01
Nov Beans: $9.40 – $9.52 (?)
Dec Meal; $297.0 – $305.0
Dec Bn Oil: $34.70 – $35.60 (?)
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