Soybean Commentary
Nov Soybeans close ¾ cent lower ($9.66), March 1 cent lower ($9.85 ¾) and July ¼ cent lower ($10.03 ½)
Dec Soybean Meal closes $1.0 higher ($316.2), March $0.6 higher ($320.9) and July $0.7 higher ($325.8)
Dec Soybean Oil closes 15 pts lower ($33.11), March 16 pts lower ($33.51) and July 14 pts lower ($33.96)
USDA announces 131 K T. soybeans sold to China
CONAB suggests the Brazilian new crop soybean production at 106.0 – 108.2 M T. vs. 114.0 last year vs. USDA at 107.0 new crop
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.484 M T. vs. 900 k – 1.200 M T. expected
Weekly Soybean Crop Ratings & Progress – 61% GE (+1%) vs. 60% expected vs. 74% year ago – 36% harvested vs. 38% expected vs. 43% 5-year average
Beans and meal try to rally early on the ongoing dryness in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso but failed to follow through. Weather forecasts do suggest some relief later this week but looking at the maps I follow it doesn’t look like much. Tuesday did see some reversing of the oil/meal spreading we saw on Monday but overall the trade was relatively quiet. I still get the impression the trade is favoring the inter-market spread of long oilseeds vs. short feed grains. As far as the flat is concerned most participants appear to be middle of the road as of this writing. Weekly soybean export inspections were better than the trade was expecting but it was barely given a look.
Processor soybean bids remain steady looking. The river soybean basis continues to rebound from last week’s bashing as freight is easing as are the Gulf bids. Offers to sell cash soybean meal remain depressed looking. Soybean and soybean meal spreads little change on the day.
Chop, Chop, Chop – this best describes the soy complex’s recent trade. Given the recent attempts to rally without follow through I have to think the chop-chop trade will continue until we see what the USDA has to say on Thursday.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/11
Nov Beans: $9.56 – $9.76
Dec Meal; $312.0 – $320.0
Dec Bn Oil: $32.85 – $33.70
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.