Soybean Commentary
January Soybeans close 8 ½ cents higher ($9.76 ¼), March 8 ½ cents higher ($9.87 ¼) and July 8 cents higher ($10.05)
Dec Soybean Meal closes $1.0 higher ($311.3), March $0.9 higher ($316.5) and July $0.6 higher ($321.2)
Dec Soybean Oil closes 74 pts higher ($34.75), March 68 pts higher ($35.08) and July 64 pts higher ($35.47)
NOPA October Crush – 164.2 million bu. vs. 164.4 expected – Soybean Oil Stocks – 1.224 billion lbs. vs, 1.410 expected
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.100-1.500 M T. old crop expected – 0-50 K T. new crop expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Sales – 125-350 K T. old crop expected – no new crop expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Sales – 14-40 K T. old crop expected – no new crop expected
The recent break in the flat price coupled with the recent break in the US Dollar has some believing the soybean market is ripe for some exporter interest. Daily sales’ announcements for soybeans to China have absent of late; the last sale reported was on October 27th. The
NOPA October crush data gave an extra added boost to the market midday especially for bean oil. It was a solid crush number for soybeans; just 200 K bu. below what was expected. Bean oil stocks came in noticeably lower than expected. Prior to the NOPA report soybean meal was trying to assert some leadership but that gave way shortly after. Tomorrow the trade will be looking at the weekly export sales data to see if today’s rally can be extended.
Interior cash soybean markets continue to show a steady to higher bias. Now that harvest has concluded recent soybean movement is expected to be on the decline. Let’s call the Gulf fully steady; no better, no worse. Soybean spreads ran flat up front; slightly better vs. the new crop. Overnight a prominent Chinese trading firm suggested their soybean imports would approach the 100.0 M T. mark this year. Offers to sell cash meal continue to be depressed. Meal spreads ran fractionally better. Soybean oil spreads have been a correction phase along with the flat price. Today’s flat price rally in bean oil had spreads rebounding. The story in bean oil continues to be all about bio-diesel and its better demand for bean oil.
So – can soybeans extend today’s rally? I’ll give it another 8-10 cents. If the interim sell signal that was recorded the other day is any good should limit the rally potential. The other day soybean meal was on the edge of electing sell stops but failed to do so. If today’s oil/meal spreading continues I have to think those stops will be elected sooner vs. later. If bean oil did indeed register an interim top the other day another 35 pts or so on top of today’s rally should find resistance. Palm oil has been in a swoon in recent days – if that continues it will weigh on bean oil’s attempt to rally.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/16
March Beans: $9.78 – $9.96
Dec Meal; $309.0 (?) – $315.0
Dec Bn Oil: $34.20 – $35.20
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