Wheat Commentary
Dec Chgo Wheat closes 8 cents lower ($4.20), March 7 ½ cents lower ($4.37 ¾) and July 6 ½ cents lower ($4.63 ½)
Dec KC Wheat closes 10 ¼ cents lower ($4.17 ¾), March 10 cents lower ($4.35 ¼) and July 9 cents lower ($4.65 ¼)
Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat – will US wheat be offered or will Russia continue to dominate?.
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 350-550 K T. old crop expected – no new crop expected
Flat price wheat struggles to rally – it breaks so easily. That holds true with the flat price trading as well as the inter-market spread trading. That suggests to me the best we have to look forward to is the development of a trading range affair. US wheat direction will continue to be dominated by Black Sea prices. Dec Chgo wheat came with 2 cents of its contract lows on Wednesday – not a good sign.
Interior cash wheat remains quiet. Bids for SRW at the Gulf don’t do much. Chgo wheat spreads appear to be on the defensive. If I didn’t know better it seems like we have some players/spreaders fighting to keep wheat spreads wide in turn keeping storage rates expensive. Friday the 24th is the last day for calculating the new VSR. KC spreads inch back wider on Wednesday. The bid for HRW at the Gulf still looks pretty decent but fails to attract any attention. That would suggest slow movement and/or a lack of exportable protein wheat.
3-4 days ago the talk was US wheat futures were trying to carve out a low. Just 2 days ago the price action took on a look of an upflag. After today’s price action that upflag appears to be rolling over. Intra-market spreads are rolling over – inter-market spreads are rolling over. Daily momentum indicators are rolling over. Do I need to say anything more as to this market’s direction? As I mentioned earlier the best that can be hoped for is the development of a new sideways trend at these new lower prices.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/16
Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.16 (?) – $4.26
Dec KC Wheat: $4.13 (?) – $4.26
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