Soybeans Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Soybeans

Soybean Commentary

March Soybeans expired 12 cents lower ($10.28 ½), July closes 16 ½ cents lower ($10.43) and Nov 15 ¼ cents lower ($10.28 ¾)

March Soybean Meal expired $4.0 lower ($368.3), July closes $5.0 lower ($372.5) and Dec $5.0 lower ($363.3)

March Soybean Oil expired 24 pts lower ($31.78), July closes 50 pts lower ($31.95) and Dec 43 pts lower ($32.50)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 k – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. 100-200 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected d- new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 15-35 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

The soy complex challenges recently established resistance in the early going on Wednesday – fails to follow through – and rolls over. Rain is in the forecasts for Argentina this weekend, early next week. Some will say “too little-too late”. I view the month of March in Argentina as our September. During summers of stress we still have been able to make some soybeans with rains in September. I’m not saying we are going to salvage the majority of their crop but if the rains to come to fruition we may be able to stop the bleeding. Adding to all of this is the fact I can’t get the carryout projection of 555 million bu. out of my head. This tells me we have the beans and then some if business does indeed get shifted our way. Adding to all of this is a prominent analytical firm out of northern Illinois is suggesting this year’s coming soybean acreage could approach 92.1 million acres. Some would like to say part of today’s break is in part to a trade war with China involving soybeans. I’m not buying into that at this time.

Interior cash soybean and soybean meal markets continue to look soft. I get the impression processors bought a lot of soybeans last week and are now trying to digest them all. Soybean spreads ran steady to easier on the day while meal spreads ran mostly steady. I couldn’t help but notice comments out of China about wanting to get more involved with soybean meal exports in an effort to pick up some possible lost Argentine business. If true I doubt they are going to snub their noses at US soybean origin.

It’s an ugly looking soybean chart!! Wednesday’s old crop trade eclipsed the Monday-Tuesday trade – new highs, new lows and closing below Monday’s low. May soybeans show some trendline support around the $10.20 level and a former high around $10.15. New crop beans look almost as bad. May soybean meal closes right at the Monday-Tuesday lows. I see a smattering of support at $365.0 to $360.0. The recent attempt to correct back higher was about $10.0 so $360.0 is not unrealistic. Bean oil looks like it is ready to make another run to new lows. NOPA crush is due out tomorrow and the number is expected to be big – more times than not that means more bean oil stocks.

Daily Support & Resistance for 03/15

May Soybeans: $10.23 ($10.15) – $10.38

May Soybean Meal; $365.0 ($360.0) – $374.0

May Soybean Oil: $31.40 (?) – $31.95

 

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