Wheat Commentary
March Chgo Wheat expired 10 ¼ cents higher ($4.95 ¾), July closes 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.06 ¼) and Dec 2 ½ cents higher ($5.43 ½)
March KC Wheat expired 4 ¾ cents higher ($5.11 ¾), July closes 4 ½ cents higher ($5.41 ¾) and Dec 5 ¼ cents higher ($5.78 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected
Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat
Forecasts for moisture in the dry areas of the US HRW areas remain questionable. Most forecasters agree rain will come into that region but most believe the drier areas of that region (the western half) will go without. This and inter-market spreading (vs. corn and soybeans) provided Wednesday’s support.
Toledo needs wheat while no one else is showing that need. Export prices remain quiet. Bear spreads continue to work despite the higher flat price. The adage is that if there is going to be a major play in the US wheat markets it will be led by the new crop, not the old.
The chart picture for either Chgo or KC wheat comes down to Monday’s low vs. Tuesday’s high. Take out Monday’s low we keep sliding lower. Close above Monday’s highs and it will suggest all we have seen in recent days is just a correction within the major uptrend. Sounds easy don’t it?
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/15
May Chgo Wheat: $4.82 ($4.78) – $4.96
May KC Wheat: $5.12 (?) – $5.32
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