Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close unchanged ($10.29 ¾), July¼ cent higher ($10.40 ¾) and Nov½ cent higher ($10.26 ¾)
May Soybean Meal closes $3.5 higher ($368.0), July $3.6 higher ($370.4) and Dec $2.7 higher ($361.7)
May Soybean Oil closes 49 pts lower ($31.88), July 48 pts lower ($32.12) and Dec 45 pts lower ($32.72)
Delayed – Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.400 M T. expected – new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected
Delayed – Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Delayed – Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 20-50 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Informa suggests 2018 US Soybean planted acres 91.5 million
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says Argentine soybean crop is 39.5 M T. vs. previous estimate of 42.0 M T. vs. USDA at 47.0 M T.
The fear around Chinese trade sanctions against US soybeans has been shelved for a while as the latest sanction proposals basically calls for a 60 day discussion period once it becomes known what Chinese products the US wants to target. With that said the soybean market honors recent lows while the meal market continues to show an unwillingness to break down. Yesterday’s rally in bean oil reversed course today as traders went back to buying meal selling bean oil. Trade conversation still calls for better meal business down the road due to the short Argentine crop.
The recent trend in the interior soybean basis has not changed – Elevators are running unchanged, the processor is somewhat firm and river bids continue to leak lower. The Gulf is trying to stabilize against low levels but with river bids so soft I’m not sure of its improving potential. Soybean spreads ran fractionally softer on the day. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior stay soft looking. Yesterday’s strength in the meal export market gave it back today. Meal spreads were mostly steady upfront while bull spreads were working vs. the new crop.
Soybean meal (May) looks like it is ready to see how good the technical resistance is from $370.0 to $375.0. Soybean oil was so close to registering a buy signal Wednesday but it reversed course today. The day-to-day flip flop over there makes for a very difficult trade. AS long as the soybean market continues to honor recent lows and the meal market wants to try and move higher soybeans, on a worst case scenario, will continue to stand in. Weekly export sales in morning are expected to be mediocre to decent. Get May soybeans much above the $10.37-$10.38 level and it should attract some new buying.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/23
May Soybeans: $10.20 – $10.40
May Soybean Meal; $362.0 – $373.5
May Soybean Oil: $31.60 – $32.40
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