Wheat Commentary
May Chgo Wheat closes 2 ¼ cents higher ($4.55 ¾), July 2 ¾ cents higher ($4.72) and Dec 2 cents higher ($5.09 ¼)
May KC Wheat closes 5½ cents higher ($4.71), July 6 ¼ cents higher ($4.90) and Dec 6 ¼ cents higher ($5.30 ¾)
Delayed – Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected
Informa suggests 2018 US Wheat planted acres at 46.1 million
Near term forecasts turn a bit dryer for the US central southern Plains. Couple that with some technical ideas that wheat prices may have gone low enough for the time being leads to some bottom picking and/or minor short covering Thursday. Informa’s suggestion on wheat acres for the coming year was deemed a non-event. I do have some clients in the Dakota’s that are telling me spring wheat acres could advance at corn acres’ expense. Weekly wheat export sales are not expected to give us anything to hang our hats on as far as the upside is concerned.
Toledo still has the best bid out there for SRW. Interior HRW cash bids are mostly steady with some easiness being seen in Oklahoma. The export market for SRW remains unchanged with little indication of direction either way. The export market for HRW continues to be soft looking. Chgo spreads were fractionally weaker in the nearby while the nearby gains on the deferred. May KC continues to lose ground vs. the July while July ran mixed vs. its deferred.
For the time being my worst case scenario is consolidation against recent lows with a slight bias for continued recovery to the upside. From a technical point of view it wouldn’t take much to see July Chgo wheat rally back to the $4.85-$4.90 level. Weather considerations will move to the forefront of conversation for the KC market but without demand it somewhat mutes poor growing conditions.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/23
July Chgo Wheat: $4.65 – $4.84
July KC Wheat: $4.82 – $5.00
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