Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close 2 cents higher ($10.01 ½), July 2 ¼ cents higher ($10.11 ¾) and Nov 4 ¾ cents higher ($9.98 ¼)
May Meal closes $0.8 lower ($325.8), July $0.8 lower ($329.2) and Dec $0.8 higher ($326.1)
May Bean Oil closes 40 pts higher ($33.14), July 38 pts higher ($33.40) and Dec 35 pts higher ($33.75)
Bean oil once again carries the ball for the soybean complex. It looks like the EPA will be successful in implementing its bio-fuel mandates for 2017 which is supportive to bean oil. Soybean meal continues to be the weak sister of the complex and that is not expected to change anytime soon. Soybeans continue to get caught between the sagging meal market and the rallying bean oil market. With that said soybeans continue to honor their recent mini trading range between $10.00 and $10.20 (July).
Interior cash soybean markets continue to show a soft look and that appears to be led by softening Gulf values. Soybeans spreads continue to soften within the crop year as well as the old crop/new crop. Selected areas are trying to prop up meal offers – my guess is these are areas that are expecting to see some seasonal downtime. Meal spreads continue to soften all the way out to the new crop.
Old crop soybean meal is at 3-month lows. Old crop soybeans are flirting with 5-month lows. Can the strong soybean oil market keep the entire complex alive? My stance is that bean oil may keep the soybean market alive but no better especially since the meal market remains prone to sagging.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/22
July Beans: $10.00 (?) – $10.20
July Meal; $325.0 – $332.0
July Bn Oil: $32.80 – $33.80
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