Wheat Commentary
May Chgo wheat closes 3 ¾ cents lower ($4.26 ½), July 3 ¼ cents lower ($3.42 ¼) and Dec 2 cents lower ($4.77 ½)
May KC Wheat closes 7 cents lower ($4.38 ¼), July 7 cents lower ($4.50 ¼) and Dec 6 ¼ cents lower ($4.85 ¾)
New spec shorts continue to sell in the Chgo wheat market and spec longs continue to liquidate in the KC market. Forecasters continue to call for moisture events between now and early April for the HRW areas. Initially moisture may only favor the northern and eastern areas but as we move into next week and beyond better coverage is being expected. Chgo prices are now back to levels that we saw shortly after the first of the year when the market was rallying out of the hole. On the charts KC prices may not appear as weak but they are the current leader to the downside.
Cash wheat markets, both interior and for export, continue to be rather quiet with the only change being Toledo (up 5 cents). Spreads, both Chgo and KC, continue to be soft reflecting the idea of plentiful old crop supplies and a bit of the unknown in new crop due to the idea of lower planted acres. The USDA is scheduled to give us wheat Quarterly Stocks and wheat Prospective Plantings one week from this coming Friday.
Recent price action struggles in suggesting the recent sell-off is finding any traction. As long as moisture remains in the forecasts or the rain events turn out to be busts the flat price will be biased to move lower over the next few days. I do believe the flat price will try and consolidate ahead of the USDA 31st data but that is still 1 ½ weeks away.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/22
July Chgo Wheat: $4.36 – $4.48½
July KC Wheat: $4.45 – $4.57
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