Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close 8 ¾ cents lower ($9.45 ¾), July 8 ½ cents lower ($9.56 ½) and Nov 7 ¾ cents lower ($9.54)
May Meal closes $3.9 lower ($309.6), July $4.0 lower ($313.7) and Dec $4.4 lower ($314.4)
May Bean Oil closes 33 pts higher ($31.91), July 31 pts higher ($32.16) and Dec 31 pts higher ($32.62)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – old crop vs. 250-450 K T. expected; new crop vs. 100-300 K t. expected – Soybean Meal – old crop vs. 100-200 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Soybeans and soybean meal act as if they don’t care whether it rains or not as the focus appears to be just too much supply and not enough demand. If we do lose corn acres due to poor/late planting that means more bean acres. If corn planting goes smoothly we may lose some bean acres I doubt we’ll lose enough to become a factor. The bottom line is that between the US and the rest of the World (SA) soybean stocks are barely short of massive. I know producer selling out of SA has been slower than normal but in the end that just acts as a weight around the bean complex’s neck as those supplies will eventually hit the street.
The interior soybean basis has a mixed look to it on Wednesday. River locations are mixed (higher or lower) depending upon location. Processor bids are full steady. Gulf values are maintaining it recent firm bias. Soybean spreads ran slightly easier on the day. Like corn I think the nearby softness is response to 1st notice day – deliveries are expected.
The interior meal basis is finally showing signs of trying to improve – is this due to some seasonal processor downtime? Meal price for export remain depressed looking. Meal spreads improved ever so slightly in response to the better looking interior basis. Despite this minor improvement deliveries are expected on Friday. Board crush margins continue to stay relatively firm.
The short term technical look at beans and meal is sideways against recent lows while in a longer term downtrend. Bean oil has a similar looking picture but trying to show a spark. For the near term the complex has the appearance of treading water – going forward I feel this is the best the complex will do. Sustainable rallies do not appear in the cards as of this writing.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/27
July Beans: $9.47 ½ – $9.65
July Meal; $311.0 – $317.0
July Bn Oil: $31.70 – $32.40
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