Wheat Commentary
May Chgo wheat closes 1 cent lower ($4.07 ¾), July ½ cent lower ($4.26 ½) and Dec 2½ cents lower ($4.62)
May KC Wheat closes ¼ cent higher ($4.12 ¼), July ½ cent higher ($4.25 ¼) and Dec ¾ cent higher ($4.66 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected
Depending on which wheat contract your trading you saw different results on Wednesday. The Mpls contract, due to poor planting conditions, saw decent gains on the day. The KC market followed with only fractional gains as it was caught between the falling corn market and the gains in Mpls. KC does have some concern for its crop over the weekend as temps will flirt with the freezing mark in the central southern Plains. The fractional declines in Chgo came from the declining corn market as well as the inter-market spreading among the different whet varieties – Chgo is the short side against KC and Mpls.
Interior cash wheat prices remain quiet. Export prices for HRW continue to firm while export prices for SRW are maintaining recent softness. Nearby Chgo spreads are trying to stabilize while bull spreading was quite evident against the deferred contracts. As of this writing deliveries are expected against the Chgo contract. KC spreads remain quiet – deliveries are expected here as well.
The technical look still has Chgo and KC honoring its respective reversals that were scored on Tuesday. With some weather issues near at hand I have to think those reversals will be honored through week’s end. Further rally potential will have to come from further declines in growing/planting conditions. As of this writing I’m thinking consolidation between Tuesday’s lows and Wednesday’s highs.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/27
July Chgo Wheat: $4.20 – $4.36
July KC Wheat: $4.18 – $4.33
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.