Soybean Commentary
Sept Soybeans close 1 ¼ cents lower ($9.63 ¼), Nov 2 ¼ cents lower ($9.68 ¾) and March 2 ½ cents lower ($9.87 ¼)
Sept Meal closes $1.2 lower ($302.4), Dec $1.5 lower ($307.2) and March $1.2 lower ($311.4)
Sept Bean oil closes 13 pts lower ($35.08), Dec 13 pts lower ($35.43) and March 12 pts lower ($35.80)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – old crop vs. -200+100 K T. expected; new crop vs. 700 K – 1.000 M T. expected – Soybean Meal – old crop vs. 40-100 K T. expected; new crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – old crop vs. 0-22 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected
Soybeans and soybean meal move into a consolidation phase following recent gains. If the flat price does try and sell off over the next few days I think good support will be revealed due to ideas that the US soybean crop is not finishing off too well and Chinese interest at lower levels. Soybean oil makes new highs for the move that started back in June and then sells off. The European Union announced it will reduce the tariffs on bio-diesel from Argentina. This will cut into the US bio-diesel exports to the EU.
The interior soybean basis is seeing few if any changes on Thursday. River locations jockey back and forth depending on who needs beans vs. who doesn’t. The Gulf appears quiet.
November forward spreads saw only fractional changes out to July. Soybean Meal spreads saw fractional weakness month to month beginning with December.
After today’s price action I get the impression the complex has gone high enough for now. It would not surprise me to see the complex go into a “back and fill” type trade of the recent rally. Worst case between now and next Tuesday would be Nov beans down to $9.50, Dec meal down to $299.0 and Dec bean oil down to $34.70
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/08
Nov Beans: $9.60 – $9.80
Dec Meal; $302.5 – $312.0
Dec Bn Oil: $34.90 – $35.90
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