Wheat Commentary
Sept Chgo wheat closes 8 ¼ cents lower ($4.13 ½), Dec 8 ½ cents lower ($4.37 ¼) and March 8 ¼ cents lower ($4.58 ¾)
Sept KC Wheat closes 7¾ cents lower ($4.15 ½), Dec 7 cents lower ($4.41 ¾) and March 7 cents lower ($4.59 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 350-550 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
After 5 days of higher prices (25 ½ cents from low to high) flat price wheat corrects lower. I did not see any one item that acted as a trigger to today’s sell-off other than the previous 5 days of higher prices. I’m not sure the USDA will give us anything to hang our hats on as I believe they will continue to remind of burdensome global supplies. With that said I get the impression that the wheat market will go along with the rest of the AG Complex for the next 2 ½ days; a consolidating type trade.
I see no changes in the interior basis structure for SRW. I’m told the HRW market in Oklahoma is showing some miller demand. I don’t see any interest at the Gulf for SRW while the Gulf does want HRW. I’m told there are still issues at the Texas Gulf involving the unloading and loading of HRW. Bids for higher protein HRW continue to move higher. Spreads in both Chgo and KC saw few if any changes.
If the rest of the AG complex is going to into a mini consolidation phase I’m thinking the wheat market will also. The recent few days of price action here is not too dissimilar to what I’m seeing in the corn and soybean markets.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/08
Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.31 – $4.44
Dec KC Wheat: $4.35 – $4.48
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