Wheat Commentary
March Chgo Wheat closes 4 cents higher ($4.51 ¼), July 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.79) and Dec 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.16 ¼)
March KC Wheat closes 5 cents higher ($4.70 ¾), July 4 ¾ cents higher ($5.04 ¼) and Dec 5 ½ cents higher ($5.42 ½)
USDA Annual Ag Outlook Conference – 46.5 million acres planted to wheat vs. 46.0 in 2017 vs. 45.0 recent baseline projections vs. 46.0 traders’ survey
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
It seems the wheat market ran out of sellers after the Wednesday night session as the Thursday day session brought us nothing but short covering. Other than the lower US Dollar and some very short term oversold considerations I saw little to prompt the rally. Forecasts for the central southern US Plains still call for beneficial moisture to impact the eastern, southeastern portions of the HRW area. Most forecasters appear to be clear that the western half of Kansas is going to come up short. I doubt the USDA will have anything supportive to say tomorrow as they wrap up their Ag Outlook conference. Their acreage ideas today surpassed most ideas. Weekly export sales have been nothing to write home about so why should tomorrow’s be any different.
Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. The SRW export market saw a minor bump higher overnight while the export market for HRW continues to show a firm bias. Chgo spreads don’t do much and KC spreads stay wide.
Despite the technical sell signals we saw on Tuesday both the Chgo and KC markets are doing well as far as honoring suspected interim support levels. I still think we have a downwards bias but if Thursday’s price action is any indication it’s going to come grudgingly.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/23
March Chgo Wheat: $4.42 – $4.57
March KC Wheat: $4.60 – $4.75
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