Wheat Commentary
July Chgo Wheat closed 18 cents lower ($5.16 ½), Sept 17 ¼ cents lower ($5.32 ¾) & Dec 16 ¼ cents lower ($5.56)
July KC Wheat closed 14 ½ cents lower ($5.39), Sept 13 cents lower ($5.55) & Dec 12 ½ cents lower ($5.78)
Informa suggests spring wheat planted acres at 12.177 million vs. the USDA at 12.627
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop (2018/19) vs. 150-450 K T. expected – new crop (2019/20) vs. nothing expected
Hints of beneficial moisture for the dry areas of Ukraine and Russia this weekend, early next week has US wheat futures giving back nearly all of Tuesday gains. It was my idea that most of Tuesday’s gains were tied to the problems in the aforementioned areas as on the surface the USDA Production/Supply-Demand report was pretty much a non-event (if not bearish) based on traders’ expectations.
Interior SSRW bids are starting to show a bit of interest at Burns Harbor. Chgo spreads were strong early in the day and then softened with the flat price selling. In recent days I’ve talked about Oklahoma HRW bids strengthening; that continues. Now Kansas cash bids for HRW are starting to show spark. KC spreads were noticeably stronger early in the day and they too softened with the flat price selling. Cash markets would suggest the recent strength was not a fluke but I have to wonder if the spec trade was leaning the wrong was going into the index fund roll.
Before Tuesday’s rally kicked in after the USDA report prices were precariously close to breaking down out of the broad up channel wheat prices have traded in since early April. Take out yesterday’s lows with any conviction and more selling will be expected. The recent day-to-day flip-flop in prices is not for the weak of heart.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/14
July Chgo Wheat: $5.10 (?) – $5.31
July KC Wheat: $5.32 (?) – $5.53
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.