Wheat Commentary
March Chgo Wheat closes 8 ½ cents lower ($4.27 ½), May 9 ½ cents lower ($4.47) and July 8 ¾ cents lower ($4.62 ¾)
March KC Wheat closes 6 ¼ cents lower ($4.57), May 6 ½ cents lower ($4.66) and July 6 ¾ cents lower ($4.77 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected
Once again the market’s inability to extend a rally attempt attracts more selling. Forecasters do call for some moisture to move into the central southern Plains but many question if the rain event will get into the dry areas of this region. Additionally, world stocks remain ample enough to offset any US shortfall. New crop from our global competition appears to be in good shape which also works to offset any crop fears in this country.
Interior cash wheat markets for most varieties continue to be quiet. The SRW at the gulf is quiet as well. HRW at the gulf had been firming in recent days; sold off today. The May forward Chgo spreads continue show a bias to widen. KC spreads remain quiet while continuing to move sideways – KC spreads have been moving sideways showing a fair amount of carry dating back to last summer.
The bullish channel Chgo prices have been in dating back to December remains intact but as of this writing that’s the only positive aspect of the market that I can tout at this time. The KC market has a similar look to it. Jumping off levels, meaning the bullish channels are breaking down are the mid-low $4.50’s for July Chgo wheat and the mid-high $4.60’s for July KC Wheat.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/09
July Chgo Wheat: $4.56 – $4.70
July KC Wheat: $4.72 – $4.87
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