Soybean Commentary
March Soybeans close 3 ¾ cents lower ($10.11), July 3 ½ cents lower ($10.31 ¼) and Nov 3¼ cents lower ($10.10 ¼)
March Meal closes $0.4 lower ($326.5), July $0.1 lower ($334.2) and Dec $0.7 lower ($327.2)
March Bean Oil closes 18 pts lower ($33.29), July 19 pts lower ($33.81) and Dec 14 pts lower ($34.24)
USDA announces 122 K T. old crop soybean meal sold to Philippines
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – old crop vs. 350-550 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected; new crop vs. none expected – Soybean Oil – 8-30 K T. expected; new crop vs. none expected
Soybeans see a quiet session on Tuesday but still with a bias to grind lower. Soybean meal, too, continues to grind lower but tries to show signs of stabilization. Bean oil continues to move lower influenced by lower palm prices. We are going to see a fair amount of fundamental data thrown at us tomorrow in the form of CONAB and the USDA. Trade guesses for this data is not too spiffy looking and recent market action is indeed reflecting this.
The interior soybeans basis is currently showing an easier bias save Decatur, Il which was 5 cents higher. The Gulf market had been trying to steady up in recent days; sold off today. Nearby spreads ran mostly steady to fractionally easier. I couldn’t help but notice that March 18 forward lost noticeable ground. The cash meal market is mostly steady with some selected locations trying to show some minor improvement in anticipation of a crush slowdown. With this said meal spreads gained ever so slightly.
TEF – Just My Opinion – March 8th
Once again soybeans are back in congestive type support. soybean meal once again marks new lows for its current sell-off but it is flirting with the topside of some previously established support. Bean oil continues to sell off from the rally that was happened on the 28th which was in response to the rumors of a possible revamping of the renewable fuels program. Daily momentum indicators for beans show additional room/time to move lower while the meal market’s momentum indicators are trying to suggest that from a time frame there’s not much left on the downside. The bean oil’s momentum indicators are just in the process of rolling over. I’m not wild about selling breaks but the recent price action leaves a lot to be desired.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/09
July Beans: $10.25 (?) – $10.45
July Meal; $330.0 – $338.0
July Bn Oil: $33.15 – $34.30
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