Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($9.00), March 1 ¾ cents higher ($9.25 ¾) & July 2 ½ cents higher ($9.45 ½)

October Soybean Meal closed $2.7 lower ($295.2), Dec $2.6 lower ($298.9) & March $2.4 lower ($304.1)

October Soybean Oil closed 85 pts higher ($30.14), Dec 85 pts higher ($30.28) & March 85 pts higher ($30.77)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 666.4 K T. vs. 600 k – 1.000 M T. expected

USDA announces 256.0 K T. of soybeans to China – brings 2-day total to 460.0 K T.

Weekly Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 54% GE (-1%) vs. 54% expected vs. 67% year ago – Setting Pods – 95% vs. 100% 5-year average – Dropping Leaves – 15% vs. 38% 5-year average

Soybean oil was clearly the complex’s leader on Monday. Initially help came from the sharp rally in crude oil. That was followed by the WH’s plan/proposal to boost bio-fuel quotas by 10% for 2020. The original EPA plan for 2020 was 20 billion gallons; with last week’s proposal and now this new one it would bring the total up to 22.4 billion gallons. Last but not least was the NOPA crush data; soybeans crushed came in higher than expected but with lower than expected soybean oil stocks. Soybeans spent the day see-sawing back and forth between slightly better vs. slightly easier finally finishing slightly higher. The meal market acted as a drag on soybean prices but that’s what happens when the processor is crushing for bean oil; meal stocks tend to build. It is thought that as the week progresses we should see additional Chinese purchases. Last week the talk was China bought at least 600 K T.; so far 460 K T. have been announced. Last but not least; soybean planting in Brazil is going to be delayed in Mato Grosso due to the ongoing hot and dry conditions.

The interior cash soybean market (basis) is running mixed to steady. The Ohio River is 2 cents better while Decatur IN is running 2 cents easier. Overall the interior soybean basis has a weak look to it. The Gulf continues with its depressed look at its midday posting. Weekly export inspections came in at the low end of expectations. Soybean spreads ran fractionally weaker on the day. Cash offers for soybean meal remain nothing to write home about. Meal spreads ran fractionally softer on the day.

November soybeans continue to deal with a chunk technical resistance from $9.00 to $9.10. I’m not sure the strength in bean oil is enough to get us through this level. Soybean meal has to show some “get up and go” if the price of soybeans are going to sustain higher levels. I don’t think the meal market (Dec) has that much downside to it; the mid- $290’s should be support. Soybean oil (Dec) gives us its best close dating back to early April. It’s next upside target is the $31.00 to $31.50 level.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/17

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.06 ($9.11)

Dec Soybean Meal: $297.0 – $305.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $29.70 – $30.65 ($31.00)

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