Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed ¾ cent lower ($8.88 ½), March unchanged ($9.15) & July ¾ cent higher ($9.34 ¼)

October Soybean Meal closed $2.4 lower ($290.8), Dec $2.0 lower ($295.6) & March $1.6 lower ($301.2)

October Soybean Oil closed 3 pts lower ($29.01), Dec 3 pts lower ($29.17) & March 4 pts lower ($29.69)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.038 M T. old crop vs. 800 K – 1.300 M T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 43.5 K T. old crop (2018-19) vs. 0-150 K T. expected – 120.8 K T. new crop (2019-20) vs. 200-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 4.7 K T. old crop (2018-19) vs. 0-25 K T. expected – 29.9 K T. new crop (2019-20) vs. 5-15 K T. expected

USDA announces 257.0 K T. of soybeans sold to China

Weekly export sales for soybeans came in midrange of expectations. Weekly export sales of meal were nothing to write home about. Today’s announced sale to China brings announced totals to 1.558 M T. since Sept 13th. The politicians involved with the US/China trade talks continue to suggest China will buy 6.0 M T. of US soybeans prior to the start of their face-to-face meetings beginning the week of October 7th. Next Tuesday starts Golden Week in China. During that week I would not expect to see any new sales. Recent frost talk for the US Northern Plains next week appears to be diminishing. Parts of the central and west central Midwest remain forecasted to see excessive moisture over the next number of days. The end result of the day was that spinning wheels go round and round; meaning prices did not really deviate too far away from levels we have been in for the past few days.

Crush margins remain on the defensive. With that said processor basis levels have a soft look. Interior river locations run steady to better keying off of the recent Chinese business. I’m told a good portion of the recent business is for October shipment. Despite what looks like some new export business for the near term Gulf basis levels for soybeans suggest they have to the supply to meet this new demand. Soybean spreads leak wider especially the nearby.

Similar to corn the flat price action in the soybean complex suggests we have moved into a “waiting” mode. What is the trade waiting for – announcements of further demand and/or a better handle on what we have sitting in the fields maturing. The rhetoric we hear from the politicians involved with the China/US trade talks we have heard before – China is going to buy all sorts of US Ag – but in the end their numbers have fallen short of the politicians’ predictions

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/27

Nov Soybeans: $8.80 – $9.00

Dec Soybean Meal: $293.0 – $299.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.90 – $29.40

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.