Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 2 cents lower ($9.11 ¾), March 2 cents lower ($9.36 ½) & July 1 3/4 cents lower ($9.54 ¾)

October Soybean Meal closed $2.3 lower ($298.0), Dec $2.7 lower ($302.9) & March $2.9 lower ($308.1)

October Soybean Oil closed 74 pts higher ($29.80), Dec 68 pts higher ($29.89) & March 68 pts higher ($30.37)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 2.076 M T. old crop vs. 900 K – 1.400 M T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 21.5 K T. old crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – 136.8 K T. new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 2.5 K T. old crop vs. 0-15 K T. – no new crop vs. 5-25 K T.

USDA announces 252.0 K T. of soybeans sold to China – Announced sales from Sept 13th now total 2.400 M T.

The soybean trade was caught between a sloppy looking soybean meal market vs. a surging soybean oil market on Thursday. I thought weekly soybean export sales were pretty decent vs. expectations. Product sales were nothing to write home about. Bean oil gets a boost from the idea the administration will announce tomorrow their latest bio-fuels deal as well as follow through buying from the Tuesday’s monthly August crush report that featured lower than expected bean oil stocks. I’m told that bean oil demand for bio-diesel continues to be quite good. There is some frost talk for the latter part of next week but any damage is expected to be minimal if any at all as it stays mostly north. Last but not least the scheduled crop report for next week keeps the market supported just in case there is a surprise.

The interior soybean basis still river basis levels with a firm bias in response to the recent Chinese business. Processor bids are steadying up after recent weakness. The Gulf soybean basis has a firm undertone but is not running away. Soybean spreads saw minimal fractional changes. Board crush margins improve a bit as soybean oil advances more than offset the losses in soybean meal. The interior soybean meal basis remains weak looking. The Gulf meal continues to show a fairly wide spread between bids and offers. Meal spreads showed some slight improvement but still rather soft looking.

Soybeans hold on to the recent rally with some minor backing and filling finding support as it neared recently violated resistance levels. The meal market has s similar look to it as it retraced back to the topside of its recent trading range that it popped out of just the other day. Bean oil charts have strengthened to the point that they look like they want to test recent interim highs near the $30.50 level (Dec).

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/04

Nov Soybeans: $9.00 – $9.20

Dec Soybean Meal: $300.0 – $308.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $29.40 – $30.25

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.