Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed ¼ cent lower ($4.88 ¾), March unchanged ($4.96 ¼) & July ¼ cent higher ($5.0 ¼)

December KC Wheat closed unchanged ($4.05 ¾), March ¾ cents higher ($4.20 ¼) & July 1 ½ cents higher ($4.39 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed unchanged ($5.29 ½), March 1 cent lower ($5.43 ¼) & July 1 cent lower ($5.60 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 328.5 K T. old crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

USDA announces 130.0 K T. of white wheat sold to China

Flat price wheat sees a two-sided trade on Thursday. Weekly export sales continue to be no big deal. There was surprise however when the USDA announced two cargoes of white wheat sold to China. This was the first US wheat sale to China since last March and the biggest announced Chinese wheat sale since December of 2016. European wheat futures remain firm on renewed export hopes since they sold the one cargo to Egypt the other day. Recent easing in the US Dollar (down 100 pts from Tuesday’s high to today’s low) also lent some minor support.

I’m not seeing any changes in the interior advertised wheat basis for standard protein wheat. The Gulf basis for both HRW and SRW has a bit of softness to them. Wheat spreads at all US exchanges ran fractionally softer reflecting the US’s lack of competitiveness in the World’s export circles.

Chgo wheat is barely holding on to its uptrend. Anyone that bought Chgo wheat this week will not want to say Monday’s low, $4.83 ¼, taken out on a closing basis. KC wheat has already given up its attempt at establishing an uptrend. The best that can be said for KC wheat is the possible development of a sideways trading range.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/04

Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.80 – $4.96

Dec KC Wheat: $3.97 – $4.14

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.