Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed ¼ cent lower ($9.33 ¾), March ¼ cent lower ($9.59 ½) & July ¼ cent lower ($9.76 ½)

December Soybean Meal closed $1.7 higher ($308.6), March $1.3 higher ($314.7) & July $1.3 higher ($321.6)

December Soybean Oil closed 27 pts lower ($30.58), March 26 pts lower ($31.05) & July 26 pts lower ($31.62)

USDA announces 128.0 K T. of soybeans sold to Unknown

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 K – 1.600 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Soybeans are another market that has moved into a consolidating type trade. The day session saw last week’s lows challenged and they manage to hold. That brought about some intra-day buying as did the meal market rallying against bean oil. The USDA announced sale this morning is thought to be part of some recent Chinese buying. Many are thinking that the Chinese are trying to keep their “unit” buying under the 100.0 K T. USDA threshold for daily reporting. This way they don’t get front run from the funds. The other side of that coin is the thought “do they really need more soybeans from the US for the balance of this year”? I’m being told they are pretty much covered through December.

For the most part the interior basis for soybeans has a firm tone. I say for the most part as from time to time selected areas may get covered up for the short term. The Gulf continues to ratchet higher as overall movement remains slow. Despite the strong looking Gulf the nearby soybean spread stays wide. Going forward soybean spreads ran mostly steady with only fractional changes if any.

Nov beans challenge last week’s low and they give us a minor bounce all the while staying in a relatively tight trading range. The bigger picture is still looking at an interim double top against the $9.45 level. Soybean meal provided some of the bounce as it gets back some of its recent losses vs. soybean oil. Overall Dec soybean meal continues to trade between the mid-low $300.0’s and the mid-low $310.0’s. Dec soybean oil backs away for the $31.00 level for the second day. Tomorrow is export sales day and the trade will once again look/expect to see decent numbers as well as the possibility of another daily announcement from the USDA.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/24

Nov Soybeans: $9.28 (?) – $9.43

Dec Soybean Meal: $305.0 – $312.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.30 – $31.10

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.