Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.20 ¾), March 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.26) & July 1 cent higher ($5.34 ½)

December KC Wheat closed 2 cents higher ($4.23 ¼), March 2 ¼ cents higher ($4.37) & July 2 ½ cents higher ($4.55 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed 3 ¼ cents higher ($5.42 ¼), March 3 ½ cents higher ($5.56 ¼) & July 3 ¼ cents higher ($5.72)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Algeria books nearly 600 K T. of wheat at levels just below what Egypt paid last week. Most of this business is expected to be of French origin. French wheat futures traded mostly unchanged on the day. With that said US futures consolidated after 2 ½ days of downside correcting. The US wheat markets will continue to watch the European and Black Sea wheat prices for near term direction as its these two markets that are getting the lion’s share of the global wheat business.

Very few changes are being noted with the interior wheat basis for standard protein. I’m told the higher protein markets continue to firm. the Gulf markets continue to show a firm bias but I think a lot of that is due to slow movement as well as a tight market for quality wheat. Chgo spreads firmed after two days of easing while KC spreads ran fractionally softer.

So – how good are the suggested downside reversal patterns we saw earlier this week? Weekly export sales are out in the morning and no big deal quantities are expected. Then again the rally that started in early September has not been about US demand but higher European and Black Sea prices. If an interim top is indeed in place expect to see some resistance testing over the near term followed by failure.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/24

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.14 (?) – $5.32

Dec KC Wheat: $4.16 (?) – $4.32

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.