Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

January Soybeans closed 6 ½ cents lower ($9.05), March 5 ½ cents lower ($9.19) & July 4 cents lower ($9.43 ¾)

December Soybean Meal closed $2.2 lower ($299.8), March $2.3 lower ($304.7) & July $1.8 lower ($311.0)

December Soybean Oil closed 24 pts higher ($31.20), March 27 pts higher ($31.69) & July 26 pts higher ($32.27)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 K – 1.400 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Just my opinion – given all of the rhetoric that comes out on a daily basis around the ongoing trade talks with China I have think no one has any idea of when a deal may get signed. The latest I’ve heard is some time next year. On top of that we get the “bully tactics” that suggests if China doesn’t sign off on a deal additional tariffs will be enacted against them. Adding insult to injury the Gulf basis for soybeans has taken a recent node-dive. The effect of all this has Jan soybeans trading a low level not seen since the September crop report. December soybean meal once again closes below the $300.0 level which has been suspected to be support. Soybean oil manages to buck the bearish trend fueled by higher palm oil, higher canola oil and the underlying demand for bio-diesel.

Recent strength in the interior river soybean basis appears it may be starting to wobble a bit. The processor, however, appears to be standing in as Board crush margins are noticeably rallying from their October lows. The Gulf soybean basis is going to the route of the interior basis as it too has moved south in the past couple of days.

Soybean charts are ugly looking. Soybean meal charts are ugly looking. Strength in soybean oil is not enough to offset the weakness in the meal charts. If this market is about demand or lack thereof it will take big surprises in the weekly export sales reports to turn the tide. It has been said that China has been buying soybeans all along but in small lots to fly under the USDA’s daily reporting system. Now’s the time for those small lots to add up.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/21

Jan Soybeans: $9.00 ($8.96) – $9.14

Dec Soybean Meal: $298.0 (?) – $304.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.75 – $31.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.