Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.68 ½), March 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.79) & July ¾ cent higher ($3.90)

December Chgo Ethanol closed 0.011 cents a gallon higher ($1.416) & Jan $0.008 cents higher ($1.389)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 788.0 K T. old crop vs. 400-900 K T. expected – 45.9 K T. new crop vs. none expected

USDA announces 106.0 K T. of corn sold to unknown – weekly total of daily announced corn sales is now 429.0 K T.

The USDA gives us the third announced daily corn sale of the week bringing the total announced to 429.0 K T. Weekly corn export sales were deemed as “okay” as they favored the topside of expectations. The recent daily sales announcements are starting to lend some legitimacy to the idea that US corn imports will start improving as we move into the Dec/Jan/Feb time frame. If the US corn export pace is indeed improving and the grind for ethanol can continue to improve it just may provide the impetus for the big spec/managed net shorts to start some covering. How deliveries pan out vs. the December contract (starting late next week) just may become the deciding factor as to whether or not we start a short covering run.

The interior corn basis has taken on a mixed look. Processors, depending upon location, are either standing in for corn origination or are backing away. Interior river locations are mixed as well depending upon location. The Gulf saw some easing earlier this week but now appears to be stabilizing. Corn spreads which had been under pressure earlier this week appear to be stabilizing as well. It has been my thought that a lot of the recent weakness in the nearby spreads has been tied to option expiration which happens tomorrow.

Today’s corn trade can be summed up as “minding the gap” on the weekly continuation corn charts; $3.65 ¾ down to $3.58 ½. All we saw today was an inside day of Wednesday’s trade. Today’s trade broken down into smaller time frames just shows some simple upflagging; not the best looking price action that would suggest a low is in the making.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/22

Dec Corn: $3.63 – $3.72     

March Corn: $3.73 ½ – $3.82 ½

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.