March Soybeans closed 13 cents lower ($9.03 ½), July 12 ½ cents lower ($9.31 ¼) & Nov 10 ¾ cents lower ($9.48)
March Soybean Meal closed $4.6 lower ($305.5), July $4.4 lower ($313.7) & Dec $4.1 lower ($320.1)
March Soybean Oil closed 10 pts lower ($29.89), July 11 pts lower ($30.55) & Dec 10 pts lower ($31.18)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales for week ending January 3rd – <-612.0 K T.> vs. 600 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 1.1 K T. new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales for week ending January 3rd – 124.7 K T. vs. 100-300 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales for week ending January 3rd – 2.2 K T. vs. 8-24 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Informa Planted Soybean Acres for 2019 – 86.044 million acres – USDA last year 89.196 million
The January 3rd weekly soybean export sales report featured previous sales to China, 807.0 K T., as cancelled. Sales to “unknown” featured 444.0 K T. of cancellations (261.0 K T. were switches). Once this news came out it set the soybean market into a downward spiral and soybean meal went along for the ride. I have to ask myself were any of these cancelations part of the “good will gesture” buying China did in early December? Do the trade delegates know about this? It’s all very puzzling. I am told the US is nowhere near being competitive with SA offerings. Couple all of this with expected decent supplies coming out SA the US price of soybeans really has no place to go other than lower. Soybean oil puts in a steadyish performance as it finds some left handed support from the lower meal prices.
Interior soybean prices run steady to mixed on Thursday. The Ohio River reports a 5 cent better basis as does Toledo. Processor bids have a firmish tone but nothing that grabs one that says look at me. Other river locations that are dealing with weather related issues (ice, high water) are mostly steady with recent changes (some a bit better, some a bit easier). The Gulf continues to firm but that is in response to slow product delivery not so much demand. Soybean spreads ran steady to easier within the crop year. Old crop continues to ease to the new crop. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to be soft looking; both for domestic use and for export. Meal spreads ran with a fractionally easier tone all the way out to the new crop.
March soybeans are bumping up against a support trendline that has been working since mid-September. The 100-day MA happens to come in almost the same level. We’re talking about the $9.00-$9.01 level. Nearby meal prices are back in line to test the fall lows; roughly $303.0-$303.5 (March). Despite bean oil only showing minor losses on the day the price chart still suggests this market remains in a liquidation mode. We’ve got a 3-day weekend ahead of us and the US/China trade talks supposedly finish up tomorrow (tonight in the US is tomorrow in Beijing) so maybe we’ll know something a bit more conclusive in the overnight session tonight. With that said its probably better we don’t chase today’s break. If the soybean market is going to go lower it will probably go a lot lower from where we are now so I don’t think we need to jump in and chase a near 20 cent break.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/15
Mch Soybeans: $8.98 – $9.12
Mch Soybean Meal: $303.0 – 310.0
Mch Soybean Oil: $29.65 ($29.40) – $30.50
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