March Chgo Wheat closed 15 ¼ cents lower ($5.07), May 15 ½ cents lower ($5.10 ½) & July 13 ¼ cents lower ($5.13 ¼)
March KC Wheat closed 12 ½ cents lower ($4.81 ½), May 12 ¼ cents lower ($4.88 ¼) & July 11 ¼ cents lower ($4.95 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales for week ending January 3rd – 131.2 K T. vs. 200-500 K T. expected – 30.2 K T. new crop vs. none expected
Informa Planted Wheat Acres for 2019 – All Wheat – 46.782 million acres – USDA last year 47.800 million – “Other Spring” Wheat – 13.640 million acres – USDA last year 13.200 million
Feeble looking weekly export sales from January 3rd along with lower prices from our export competitors has US wheat prices reeling lower. March KC wheat pumps out a new contract low by 1 ¾ cents and a new contract low close by 2 cents. Chgo prices are nowhere near contract lows despite suffering heavier losses vs. KC. Chgo loses to KC due to Chgo’s heavier concentration of spec players. In recent weeks when we saw losses such as we saw today we would hear from Egypt announcing an overnight tender; not today.
Little to no changes are being seen in the interior cash wheat basis. Export prices remain firm but with no changes. Cash wheat movement remains extremely quiet. March/May Chgo gains ¼ cent but then falls off noticeably vs. July forward. It was similar structure change in KC. Mpls spreads are still improving out to the new crop.
As far as I’m concerned today’s price activity did a lot of damage to the wheat charts that should lead to yet lower prices. I still won’t chase the break to participate and the short term charts are not that oversold for me to fade for a short term trading opportunity. We have a 3-day weekend coming at us so I’ll be content to sit for the time being.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/15
Mch Chgo Wheat: $5.01 – $5.14
Mch KC Wheat: ??? – $4.88
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