Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

January Soybeans closed 4 cents higher ($9.01 ¼), March 3 ¾ cents higher ($9.15 ½) & July 3 ¼ cents higher ($9.42)

December Soybean Meal closed $0.2 higher ($296.9), March $0.2 higher ($302.4) & July $0.6 higher ($308.8)

December Soybean Oil closed 11 pts higher ($31.47), March 9 pts higher ($31.95) & July 7 pts higher ($32.54)

CONAB – Brazil Soybean Production – 121.092 M T. vs. 115.030 M T. year ago

Highlights USDA Soybean Supply-Demand Report – All domestic data left unchanged – World carryout increases by 0.98 M T. – take China out of the mix and World carryout declines 0.03 M T.

Early this morning the WSJ reports that US and Chinese trade negotiators are planning for a delay of the December 15th tariffs. Later in the day a WH adviser says the December 15th tariffs are still on the table. We have yet to see any “announced” soybean sales to China that were rumored yesterday. As far as I’m concerned the USDA Supply-Demand, both for US and World, was a non-event. Despite the aforementioned soybeans continue with their recent firm tone as shorts remain nervous as to the outcome of the US/China trade talks. Soybean products were quietly a shade firmer. For what it is worth the weather in Brazil remains conducive to a developing crop. The weather in northern Argentina appears to be okay while in southern Argentina dryness fears continue to develop.

The interior soybean basis is similar to that of corn. Except for Davenport, IA, soybeans at all other locations that I track continue to run steady to better. The Gulf continues to be firm in response to the recent rumored Chinese business as well as anticipation of more. Soybean spreads had a fractional bullish bias all the way out to the new crop. Interior offers to sell cash soybean meal remain quiet. Not much happens with meal offers at the Gulf. Meal spreads ran steady to fractionally easier.

Soybean charts continue to point higher. $9.10-$9.15 looks like the next good resistance level for January soybeans. Based on the recent rally $8.85 looks like the first level of minor support. Soybean meal continues to look like a downflag from last week’s rally. Bean oil’s inside day of Monday still suggests $32.00-$32.25 will be challenged (January futures)

Daily Support & Resistance for Dec 11th

Jan Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.10

Jan Soybean Meal: $296.0 – $304.0

Jan Soybean Oil: $31.20 – $32.10

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.