Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 4 cents lower ($5.30 ¾), March 4 ½ cents lower ($5.19 ¼) & July 3 ¾ cents lower ($5.26)

December KC Wheat closed ½ cent lower ($4.15 ½), March ½ cent lower ($4.30 ¾) & July 1 ½ cents lower ($4.45 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed 3 ½ cents higher ($5.00 ½), March ¼ cent higher ($5.18 ¼) & July unchanged ($5.36)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

It looks like the feature of today’s wheat trade was inter-market spreading among the varieties. This is basically where the trade left off on Tuesday after the USDA report; buying the hard and selling the soft. Tuesday’s USDA report suggested better business may be on tap for HRW and HRS, not so much for SRW. If this recent trend continues, I must think Chgo futures will continue to grind lower while KC stays range bound.

The advertised interior wheat basis levels for ordinary protein run unchanged. Both HRW and SRW ticked up at the Gulf. The improvement at the Gulf is a result of slow farmer selling not necessarily a pick-up in demand. Chgo spreads softened with the flat price selling while KC spreads saw fractional improvement.

March Chgo wheat has an uptrend line coming in just below today’s low. Congestive type support starts to get thick from $5.15 down to $5.10. March KC wheat is a broad trading range affair; $4.10 to $4.50. I don’t see the need for any headstrong attitudes at this point in time other that we’re going nowhere of substance. Fading short term extremes for short term trading opportunities is still the best MO for this market.

Daily Support & Resistance for Dec 12th

March Chgo Wheat: $5.15 – $5.26

March KC Wheat: $4.24 – $4.38

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.