Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

January Soybeans closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($9.44 ¼), March ¾ cent higher ($9.56 ¼) & July 1 ¼ cents higher ($9.81)

January Soybean Meal closed $0.7 higher ($300.6), March $0.9 higher ($305.6) & July $0.7 higher ($312.7)

January Soybean Oil closed 48 pts higher ($34.97), March 47 pts higher ($35.24) & July 44 pts higher ($35.80)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 350 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 75-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

The grind higher continues in the soybean market (with emphasis on the word grind). Soybean oil continues to be the leader of the products as it continues to take its cue from the palm oil market. Soybean meal tried to re-assert itself midday but its close vs. its intra-day high leaves a bit to be desired. For that matter the entire soybean complex leaves a bit to be desired as far as its closes vs. its intra-day highs. The trade chatter is still all about the possibility of improved Chinese buying once the trade accord is made official scheduled for Jan 15th. The weather in SA continues to be conducive to a large crop. I will admit there is some minor concerns around the recent heat and dryness in RGDS. I am told its not forecasted to last. Today the BAGE talked about how beneficial the recent rains in Argentina have been. Supposedly soybean harvest will start in the northern reaches of Brazil by month’s end.

The interior soybean basis continues to be strong as is the Gulf. The March forward soybean spreads showed a bearish bias. These spreads are reflecting the developing crop in Brazil and when it becomes available to the World. The interior meal basis doesn’t do much. This holds true for the meal export market. Meal spreads showed fractional improvement on the day.

March soybeans tap at the low side of what I consider to be big time resistance ($9.60 to $9.70) and fail to follow through. The recent whip-saw action is soybean oil is trying to suggest there may not be much left on the current run higher without a sizable correction first. Soybean meal taps at the high side of its recent trading range and is unable to break out. March meal needs to see closes above the $308.0 level (with conviction) to suggest recent lows are in place. It is my thought the political mess in Argentina should eventually lift US prices but then again I’ve been waiting for a month now.

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 3rd  

March Soybeans: $9.50 ($9.45) – $9.62

March Soybean Meal: $302.5 – $308.0

March Soybean Oil: $34.75 ($34.25) – $35.60

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