Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 16 ¾ cents lower ($8.76 ¼), July 16 ½ cents lower ($9.04 ¼) & Nov 13 ½ cents lower ($9.16)

March Soybean Meal closed $4.6 lower ($291.5), July closed $3.4 lower ($301.4) & Dec $1.9 lower ($309.0)

March Soybean Oil closed 89 pts lower ($30.63), July 89 pts lower ($31.36) & Dec 84 pts lower ($31.85)

Weekly Export Soybean Sales – 469.7 K T. old crop vs. 400 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 2.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 438.8 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 29.4 K T. old crop vs. 8-40 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

USDA announces 30.0 K T. of soybean oil sold to Egypt

Soybean export sales were nothing to write home about while product sales were deemed decent. Crop conditions in SA (Brazil & Argentine) remain conducive to large crops. I’m being told that Brazilian selling has slowed dramatically as the plunge in the US soy market has far overshadowed the lower real/higher US Dollar that normally attracts a fair amount of selling. The bigger item behind today’s horrendous price action is the continued spread of the coronavirus and how it could impact global commerce. Granted this is far-fetched but I did read some speculation that if the virus continues to spread it could lead to the closing of Chinese ports. Looking ahead; the Chinese commodity markets have been closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and are scheduled to reopen early next week. I have to think their re-opening will feature sky-high volatility/anxiety.

I’m not seeing any changes with the interior soybean basis. The processor continues to show the best basis while the interior river basis is maintaining recent softness. The Gulf has a soft look. Soybean spreads ran weaker all the through the new crop. The interior soybean meal basis continues to have a soft look while the Gulf basis for meal continues to firm. Soybean meal spreads were weak all the through the new crop.

How ugly/low can you go? March soybeans have not been this low since last May. New contract lows and closes says it all for soybean meal. Soybean oil continues to be in a liquidation mode taking its cue from lower energy prices as well as palm prices resuming their recent swoon. I remain fearful of how the Chinese markets may re-open early next week and their influence on the western commodity markets. As of this writing the World Health Organization has declared the coronavirus a global health emergency but said travel and trade restrictions were not necessary

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 31st    

March Soybeans: $8.65 – $8.85

March Soybean Meal: $290.0 ($286.0) – $295.0

March Soybean Oil: $30.40 (?) – $31.00

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