Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($3.79 ½), July 5 cents lower ($3.89 ½) & Dec 4 ¾ cents lower ($3.90 ½)

February Chgo Ethanol closed $0.001 cents a gallon higher ($1.340), March $0.002 cents lower ($1.360)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 1.234 M T. old crop vs. 600 K – 1.200 M T. expected –143.6 K T.  new crop vs. 30-100 K T. expected

Despite good looking weekly corn export sales the market falls victim to the “risk off” attitude stemming from the continued spread of the coronavirus. Adding to the bearish sentiment it appears there is some rift developing between Mexico and the US over seasonal farm trade. It seems the top US trade negotiator pledged protectionist measures for farmers in the politically important states of Florida and Georgia. Mexico has come back to say if the US government seeks action of this kind against Mexican Ag exports it will retaliate in kind against US products. This comes on the heels of the recent signing of the new Mexico Canada US trade agreement. Mexico has been one of the better US corn buyers. I don’t think the US can afford to lose any more corn business.

Day-to-day changes with the interior corn basis are minimal; Lincoln, NE is 3 cents better. Cedar Rapids, IA is maintaining recent weakness while Decatur, IL maintains recent strength. Interior river basis maintains recent weakness. The Gulf has had a softer looking tone despite recent improved export sales. Corn spreads ran mostly steady on the day.

In recent weeks I’ve been advocating a trading range type market. I still believe it but given today’s performance the suggested support levels ($3.75 or so for March Corn) are in line to be given a severe test.

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 31st     

March Corn: $3.75 – $3.84

July Corn: $3.85 – $3.94    

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.