Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 4 ½ cents higher ($8.77), July 4 cents higher ($9.04 ½) & Nov 4 ¼ cents higher ($9.16 ½)

March Soybean Meal closed $1.2 lower ($289.8), July $0.9 lower ($300.5) & Dec $0.9 lower ($308.1)

March Soybean Oil closed 35 pts higher ($30.29), July 35 pts higher ($31.04) & Dec 42 pts higher ($31.77)

USDA announces 130 K T. of soybeans sold to Egypt

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.355 M T. vs. 550 K – 1.200 M T. expected

Lower prices were initially seen in response to the sharply lower soy prices in China but here in the US prices were able to register a minor recovery. Despite the fears around the coronavirus as to how China is going to handle it in regards manufacturing feed and then moving it the desired locations due to travel restrictions the soybean market put in a decent performance on Monday as it registered a minor reversal of its recent break. Soybean oil managed to stage a bit of a recovery as well due to a rebound in palm oil. Fundamentalists who are engaged in the veg oil trade doubt palm oil has moved into a bear market due to the idea of a lower out put going forward. Soybean meal continues to act as a weight around the soybean market’s neck but did manage a near $3.0 rally off of its lows.

Processors continue to show the best interior soybean basis. Despite the recent uptick in soybean loading the interior river basis is less impressive. The midday Gulf basis continues to ease from levels we saw early last week. Soybean spreads ran steady to better out through the new crop. The domestic soybean meal market continues to look slack vs. the export market’s recent improvement. Meal spreads continue to show a widening bias but they did manage to bounce a bit from their midday ugliness.

Both soybeans and soybean oil managed to register minor reversals for their respective current sell-offs. The entire soybean complex has been dealing with shades of oversold.  Given the ongoing Brazilian harvest of what is perceived as a record crop I’m not sure what’s out there to give us a sustaining rally. As of this writing I’ll settle for some consolidation that will feature minor upside retracement.

Daily Support & Resistance

March Soybeans – $8.70 – $8.82

March Soy Meal – $287.0 – $292.0

March Soy Oil – $29.85 – $30.75

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