Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.55 ½), May 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.53 ¾) & July 1 cent higher ($5.53 ½)

March KC Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($4.66 ¾), May 1 cent higher ($4.73 ½) & July ½ cent higher ($4.80 ½)

March Mpls Wheat closed ¾ cent lower ($5.33), May ¼ cent lower ($5.43) & July ¼ cent higher ($5.52 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 413.9 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected

US wheat futures manage to buck the lower prices from our overseas competition on Monday. If I had to guess we saw some international spread realignment between the EU, the Black Sea and the US. A case can be made for Chgo futures to be a world of their own due to the tight US SRW market. I don’t think this is going to go away until we see the new crop. The KC market appears to go along for the ride. If we are going to satisfy the CBOT Chgo wheat delivery market it will have to be down with HRW or DNS.

I’m not see any changes in the advertised interior wheat basis levels as they continue to be steady to firm for HRW and outright strong for SRW. The Gulf market for both varieties runs unchanged. Chgo Spreads continue to show a firm bias while KC spreads are mostly flat but with a short term firmer bias.

March Chgo wheat flirted with an uptrend support line that has been in place since September. March KC wheat dis further probing of some congestive support that was established in mid-late December. The short term trend continues to read lower while the longer term trend continues to read higher. US wheat futures is the type of market that if you want to be short you wait for rallies to sell as chasing short term extremes in either direction can lead to frustration.

Daily Support & Resistance

March Chgo Wheat – $5.45 – $5.62

March KC Wheat – $4.60 – $4.73

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.