Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 1 cent higher ($8.81), July ½ cent higher ($9.07 ¾) & Nov ¼ cent lower ($9.20)

March Soybean Meal closed $0.8 higher ($288.2), July $0.6 higher ($299.0) & Dec $0.1 lower ($306.2)

March Soybean Oil closed 8 pts lower ($31.24), July 8 pts lower ($31.97) & Dec 11 pts lower ($32.58)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 703.8 K T. old crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected – 4.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K t. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 212.7 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 53.0 K T. old crop vs. 12-60 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Results of Reuters Poll for February 11th USDA Supply Demand – US soybean carryout 443 million bu. vs. 475 in January – World soybean carryout 96.90 M T. vs. 96.67 in January – Brazilian soybean production 123.65 M T. vs. 123.00 in January – Argentine soybean production 53.15 M T. vs. 53.00 in January

Headlines overnight had China cutting some import tariffs on US goods. China cut the tariff on US soybeans by 2.5% bringing that tariff down to 27.5%

Once again the soybean market saw its best prices during the night session. Soybean and soybean meal export sales wee deemed no big deal. Soybean oil sales were impressive. The day session started out with sagging soybean and soybean meal prices while soybean oil prices were firm. At mid-session that scenario started to change as soybean meal prices started to firm from new contract lows and soybean oil prices started to sag. Soybean prices were caught in the middle of this shift. The tariff reduction that China announced for soybeans (as far as I’m concerned) are a drop in the bucket or a spit in the ocean. If we are to see any meaningful soybean business for the Chinese that will have to start offering tariff free import licenses to their processors. Brazil is forecasted to receive some excessive type moisture in some of their harvest ready areas; some flooding is expected. Recent moisture in Argentina is just what the doctor ordered. The USDA attaché in Brazil is suggesting their crop size is 124.5 M T. vs. recent estimates of 123.0 M T. some private estimates are even higher.

The interior soybean basis continues to show a firm bias. The Gulf is steady vs. recent postings.  Soybean spreads ran mixed within the current crop year while od crop did firm vs. the new crop. The interior meal is trying to show signs of firming while its export values are maintaining their recent strength. Meal spreads ran steady to fractionally better within the current crop year while the old crop did do some minor firming vs. the new crop.

Early in the day the soybean market acted like it was ready to sag further but when the meal market started moving higher that stabilized the soybean market. For what it is worth soybean meal registered a minor reversal from earlier in the day contract lows. I’m thinking bean oil moved into a short term “marking time” scenario as it waits for a big palm oil report Sunday night, Monday morning. A resurgent palm oil market this week has been mostly responsible for soybean oil’s rebound.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/07

March Soybeans – $8.75 – $8.91

March Soy Meal – $287.0 – $293.0

March Soy Oil – $30.75 – $32.00

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