Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 1 ½ cents lower ($3.79 ¼), July 3 cents lower ($3.88) & Dec 2 ¾ cents lower ($3.89 ¾)

March Chgo Ethanol closed $0.019 cents per gallon lower ($1.333), April $0.015 cents lower ($1.353)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 1.247 M T. old crop vs. 600 K – 1.300 M T. expected – 90.7 K T. new crop vs. 100-150 K T. expected

Results of Reuters Poll for February 11th USDA Supply Demand – US corn carryout 1.864 billion bu. vs. 1.892 in January – World corn carryout 297.19 M T. vs. 297.81 in January – Brazilian corn production 100.85 M T. vs. 101.00 in January – Argentine corn production 49.97 M T. vs. 50.00 in January

Headlines overnight had China cutting some import tariffs on US goods. There was no change to the Chinese tariff on US corn; it still stands at 25%

The range bound trade in corn continues. Weekly export corn sales were deemed beneficial as they came in near the high side of expectations. Despite the solid looking sales the only time the corn market traded higher was during the Wednesday night session. The day session brought us a challenge of the low side of the suspected trading range. Late short covering led by the nearby bull spread gave us a so-so close for the old crop; not so spiffy looking for the new crop.

The interior cash corn market (basis) continues to show a firm bias. I have to think a good portion of this is due to slow farmer selling but I am recognizing some of the River locations starting to poke their noses up. Processors still show the best basis levels. The Gulf has been running mostly unchanged (at midday) vs. the past few days. Somebody got excited with the March/May spread around mid-session today. For the past few days the spread has been pretty steady at 5 ¾ to 6; late in the session the spread moved into 5 cents (smells like some business but no confirm at this time).

How many times can I say trading range affair? I’m told US corn prices should be the market to most interested importers at least until the new crop from Argentina comes online. This idea is being highlighted by the statement from the USDA attaché in Ukraine suggesting their corn exports should be reduced by 2.4 M T. due to increased domestic demand.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/07

March Corn – $3.78 – $3.84

July Corn – $3.87 – $3.93

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