Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($8.25 ½), July 1 ¾ cents higher ($8.32 ¾) & Nov ¾ cent lower ($8.42)

May Soybean Meal closed $5.7 higher ($304.0), July $4.1 higher ($300.6) & Dec $1.4 higher ($301.3)

May Soybean Oil closed 20 pts lower ($25.04), July 22 pts lower ($25.37) & Dec 18 pts lower ($26.29)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 400 K – 1.000 M T. old crop expected – 60-100 K T. new crop expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 150-400 K T. old crop expected – no new crop expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 5-35 K T. old crop expected – no new crop expected

We saw a lot of push-pull in the soybean complex today. There was a potential port strike planned in Argentina; that was called off. The Argentine soybean producer remains a reluctant seller due to the recently enacted export tax hikes. The Brazilian port of Santos is in the planning stages for a possible port strike that if enacted could last as long as 14 days. The spread between US and Brazilian origin has narrowed noticeably. US is still a bit more expensive but if one needs quick shipment vs. the delays Brazil is currently enduring US origin has become a possible option. Yesterday the Malaysian government was thinking about shutting down palm oil production due to virus concerns. Today they said no to a shut down. Soybean oil remains impacted by the lower energy prices. Soybean meal rallies on concerns with the labor problems besetting SA shipping as well as the slow soybean movement in the US.

The interior soybean basis runs steady to slightly easier. Most locations were steady with a couple of river locations easing. The gulf is firm in response to the slow producer selling as well as competition from the processor. Soybean spreads saw a fractional bullish bias within the old crop while old crop gains on the new crop. Soybean meal offers are maintaining recent firmness in the US interior. Export offers are steady. Soybean meal spreads saw a noticeable bullish bias in the nearby spreads.

Despite the lack of Chinese soybean buying in the US its hard to ignore what’s happening with the meal spreads. If the soybean market is going to have a sustaining rally out of the hole soybean meal has to be the leader. It’s trying to do that as we speak. The recent “risk off” attitude still has the spec trade selling the midday rallies. For what it is worth July soybeans did register a minor upside reversal; an outside day involving new lows yet slightly higher. July soybean meal matched yesterday’s contract low and closed noticeably above yesterday’s high. July soybean oil made new contract lows but did not register a new contract low close. All of this suggests the soybean complex is trying to realize support despite the equity carnage all around it.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/19

July Soybeans – $8.25 – $8.50

July Soy Meal – $298.0 – $304.0

July Soy Oil – $25.00 – $26.10

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