Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 9 cents higher ($5.08 ¼), July 8 ½ cent higher ($5.08 ½) & Sept 8 ½ cents higher ($5.14 ¼)

May KC Wheat closed 14 ¼ cents higher ($4.46 ½), July 14 ¼ cents higher ($4.52 ¼) & Sept 14 cents higher ($4.60 ¾)

May Mpls Wheat closed unchanged ($5.09 ¼), July ¾ cent lower ($5.18) & Sept 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.27 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 200-600 K T. old crop expected – 50-100 K T. new crop expected

The rumor mill has China nosing around for US HRW. Adding to this there is a push for milling wheat nearly world wide as people are stocking up on bread supplies as they just don’t know how long they will have to stay home to avoid the virus. Underlying all of this is the unknown around the new crop not only in the US but World-wide. The US has historically low acres, the EU saw its acreage cut this past fall due to excessively wet conditions. Who knows about Russia given their abnormally dry winter? From a technical standpoint the wheat futures market is the only Ag market that has not pumped out new contract lows during the ongoing “risk-off” carnage.

Advertised basis levels for standard protein wheat are running unchanged. This scenario holds true for the Gulf as well. I’m told premiums for milling quality remain strong especially for SRW. Despite the rumoring about near term business spreads in Chgo didn’t do much nor did KC spreads.

The July Chgo wheat chart is trying to advertise we’ve gone low enough for now. The July KC wheat chart is advertising the same and its price picture is even stronger looking. Now whether this is just an advertisement for a rally in a bear market or something bigger remains to be seen. As I mentioned before we are entering the time frame that will dictate the success or failure of the winter crop not only in the US but world-wide as well.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/19

July Chgo Wheat – $5.02 – $5.17

July KC Wheat – $4.43 – $4.59

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.