Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 9 ¼ cents lower ($8.54 ¼), July 8 ¾ cents lower ($8.62 ¼) & Nov 5 ¼ cents lower ($8.70 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $3.9 lower ($288.6), July $3.3 lower ($294.5) & Dec $1.1 lower ($301.4)

May Soybean Oil closed 51 pts lower ($26.90), July 49 pts lower ($27.27) & Dec 47 pts lower ($28.10)

USDA – Friday, April 10th – announces 120 K T. new crop soybeans sold to unknown

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 442.0 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected

Higher prices were seen in the soy complex early Sunday night. Lows came relatively early in the Monday day session. The meal market continues to weigh on the price of soybeans due to the problems in the livestock processing sector. Soybean oil had its own problems from lower palm prices (higher stocks vs. lower demand). Soybean export inspections were deemed no big deal as they came in at mid-range of expectations.  Friday’s announced new crop sale from the USDA is thought to be China. If this sale is for China any more sales to them will be for late in the old crop marketing season if not all for new crop.

The interior soybean basis has a mixed look to it.  The processor basis is no better than steady as crush margins continue to slip-slide away. River locations involved with export are showing a slight firming bias. The Gulf basis for soybeans runs unchanged with Friday’s posting at the midday update. Soybean spreads showed a bearish bias all the way out to nov 2021.

Interior offers to sell cash soybean meal run mostly steady to a shade easier. The same holds true for export offers. As much as last week’s supply-demand report showed good export interest for soybean meal recent rates of crush are more than offsetting that export demand. End-user interest is minimal now that we have problems with hog processing plants. Needless to say soybean meal spreads show distinct bearish bias.

There is absolutely nothing friendly to new contract lows and new contract low closes in the soybean meal market. July soybean oil registers an interim reversal for the rally that started in mid-March; an outside day that involved new highs for the move and a close below the previous day’s low. July soybean registered a similar reversal to that of bean oil. The only difference is that July soybeans did not close below the previous day’s low. Overall I have to think the US soybean sector will be biased to sustain a bearish outlook for the near term.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/14

July Soybeans – $8.55 (?) – $8.70

July Soy Meal – ??? – $299.0

July Soy Oil – $26.70 – $27.80

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.