Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 4 cents higher ($8.34 ¾), July 1 ¾ cents higher ($8.42 ½) & Nov 1 ½ cents lower ($8.48)

May Soybean Meal closed $0.8 lower ($288.3), July $1.6 lower ($292.9) & Dec $2.0 lower ($296.6)

May Soybean Oil closed 22 pts higher ($25.57), July 23 pts higher ($25.99) & Dec 16 pts higher ($26.81)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-750 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-25 K t. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-35 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K t. expected

USDA announces 198.0 K T. old crop soybeans sold to China

The day’s high for soybeans was sent in the Tuesday night session when talk was China had purchased 500 K T. of US soybeans out of the Gulf. Unfortunately the USDA only announced 198.0 K T. I’m told these purchases do not make a lot of fundamental sense since Brazilian origin is still a cheaper buy vs. the US. Yesterday the meal market led soybeans out of the hole. Today the meal market failed in sustaining that advance. Soybean oil managed a minor bounce stemming from the rebound in the crude oil market.

The interior river soybean basis continues with its recent firming. Processors appear to be standing pat with their recent basis bids. The Gulf basis is not showing much change despite today’s announced export sales. Board Crush margins continue to be on the defensive. May soybeans was a noticeable gainer on July which I have to think was partly business and partly short covering. Offers to sell cash soybean meal run mostly unchanged. Bull spreads were working in a marginal manner. There is talk of slowing the crush down due to the eroding margins.

The suggested upside reversals that were registered in both soybeans and soybean meal on Tuesday were not negated today despite the inability to sustain much of a follow through rally. If the suggested reversals remain true some minor backing and filling is not unexpected. Once again the meal market remains key to the soybean market sustaining its attempt to rally out of the hole. Soybean oil honors its mid-March contract lows but that’s about it.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/23

July Soybeans – $8.34 – $8.51

July Soy Meal – $290.0 – $296.5

July Soy Oil – $25.60 – $26.40

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.