Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 3 ¾ cents lower ($5.43), July 2 ½ cents lower ($5.43 ¾) & Dec 2 cents lower ($5.53 ¾)

May KC Wheat closed 6 ¾ cents lower ($4.90), July 6 ¼ cents lower ($4.97 ¾) & Dec 5 cents lower ($5.14)

May Mpls Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.03 ¼), July 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.16 ½) & Dec ¾ cent lower ($5.40)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – Old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected

Consolidating price action as the liquidation of inter-market spreads involving long wheat keeps the market from going anywhere fast on Wednesday. It looks like we saw some decent rains move through parts of Kansas and Oklahoma earlier today. Some of the SRW areas are forecasted to see some heavy moisture in the near term. Europe and the Black Sea remain fearful of their respective ongoing dryness. An article of Australia talks about a 50% increase in next season’s production. I recently saw some new crop offers out of Russia; it looked like new crop was selling at a $35 per T. discount to the old crop. So to make a long story short we have a fair amount of mixed news impacting US wheat futures.

Advertised basis levels for standard protein wheat run unchanged. Old crop SRW remains tight. Export business for US wheat appears to be no big deal. Wheat spreads were on the defensive in both Chgo and KC.

Because wheat charts have gone into a consolidation mode the best approach comes back to fading short term extremes for short term trading opportunities. My bias is still to look at breaks to suspected support levels until we have a better handle on the new crop not only in the US but with our export competitors.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/23

July Chgo Wheat – $5.35 – $5.55

July KC Wheat – $4.90 – $5.10 (?)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.