Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed ¼ cent lower ($8.40 ½), August ¼ cent lower ($8.43 ¼) & Nov ½ cent higher ($8.52 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $0.1 lower ($283.1), August $0.4 lower ($284.6) & Dec $1.0 lower ($290.8)

July Soybean Oil closed 22 pts higher ($27.60), August 23 pts higher ($27.78) & Dec 23 pts higher ($28.44)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 396.3 K T. vs. 350-600 K T. expected

USDA April Soybean Crush – 183 million bu. vs. 182.5 million expected

USDA reports 75% of the intended US soybean acreage has been planted vs. 79% expected vs. 68% 5-year average

USDA reports the US soybean crop is now rated 70% GE vs. 68% GE expected vs. NA year ago

Sunday night soy complex prices started steady to firm. The firming action lasted until the wee hours of the morning and then selling appeared in response China telling its state owned entities not to buy any US soybeans due to their sanctions against Hong Kong. Prices made their lows early in the day session. Word started to circulate that despite the China story not to buy US soybeans that Chinese state-owned entities were indeed buying US soybeans mostly for new crop. The break in the US Dollar vs. the Brazilian Real has allowed US origin to maintain a noticeable discount to Brazilian origin especially for new crop. The rally off of the lows challenged the nighttime highs and the balance of the session was spent backing and filling. Weekly soybean export inspections were deemed as nothing to write home about. Soybean oil was once again the strength in the product markets as it took its cue from a stable palm market and the fact that soybean meal once again struggled to hold a rally.

The interior soybean basis sees slightly firmer levels from river locations and Toledo. Lincoln, NE ran 5 cents easier. The Gulf basis appears to be a bit better as we move into June. Old crop soybean spreads ran flat on the day while old crop eases vs. the new crop. The interior soybean meal basis runs unchanged while the export basis sees a firmer bid and a slightly easier offer. Meal spreads had a fractionally firmer bias.

July soybeans remain stuck in an $8.30 to $8.60 trading range. The push-pull Chinese news from this morning is enough to keep this market range bound. Soybean meal cannot get off of its can and until that happens potential rallies in the soybean market will not be able to sustain themselves. Soybean oil remains resolved to check out the $28.00 level (the early April high)

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/02

July Soybeans: $8.34 – $8.52

July Soy Meal: $281.0 – $287.5

July Bean Oil: $27.15 – $28.10

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.