Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 10 ¼ cents higher ($8.67 ¾), August 9 ¾ cents higher ($8.68 ¾) & Nov 10 ½ cents higher ($8.76 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $3.5 higher ($289.8), August $3.5 higher ($291.9) & Dec $3.5 higher ($297.8)

July Soybean Oil closed 4 pts lower ($27.82), August 4 pts lower ($28.01) & Dec unchanged ($28.68)

USDA announces 120 K T. soybeans sold to unknown (60 K T. old crop, 60 K T. new crop)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 495.2 K T. old crop vs. 500 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 607.4 K T. new crop vs. 100-500 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 558.9 K T. old crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected – 25.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 9.4 K T. old crop vs. 8-40 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

Continued Chinese interest in US soybean origination, especially for new crop, sets the tone for the soybean market. Weekly export sales for old crop soybeans were no big deal while the new crop sales were solid. The continued slide in the US Dollar suggests the US through January has the best prices. Soybean meal rallying out of its recent bottoming efforts adds to the soybean buying.

The interior Midwestern soybean basis continues to show an underlying firm tone. The gulf is strong as well especially for new crop. Soybean spreads were fractionally firm in the old crop. New crop spreads were bearish looking as the best flat price strength on the day was in the March ’21 through July ’21 contracts. Offers to sell cash soybean meal in the interior continue to look quiet while export offers continue to firm. Upfront soybean meal spreads did not do a whole lot. The best flat price strength was in the spring/summer months of 2021.

July soybeans appear geared up to challenge the $8.80-$9.00 level. Nov soybeans appear ready to challenge $8.90. Once that is attained the talk will be about if the market has enough strength to challenge the gap at $9.03 ½. July soybean meal looks like it wants to check out the mid-high $290.0’s – $300.0 level. July soybean oil acts like it has gone high enough for now after checking out the $28.00 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/05

July Soybeans: $8.60 – $8.80

July Soy Meal: $287.0 – $296.0

July Bean Oil: $27.40 – $28.20

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