Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($8.65 ½), August 1 ¾ cents higher ($8.67 ¾) & Nov ½ cent higher ($8.77)

July Soybean Meal closed $1.7 higher ($288.8), August $1.6 higher ($291.3) & Dec $1.4 higher ($298.5)

July Soybean Oil closed 23 pts lower ($28.00, August 22 pts lower ($28.19) & Dec 22 pts lower ($28.92)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 400-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. 300-800 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 10-35 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

Soybeans and soybean meal stay alive while soybean oil does some minor retreating. Continued reports of Chinese interest in US soybeans keeps sellers at bay. As long as the US dollar continues to move lower Chinese interest should continue. Soybean oil eases despite a firmer looking palm oil market. If I had to guess a good portion of the intra-day activity between meal and bean oil is all about inter-market spreading. Tomorrow’s USDA supply-Demand update, in my opinion, should feature a slightly higher old crop soybean carryout that will transition to a slightly higher new crop carryout.

The recent easing with the interior soybean basis appears to be stabilizing. The Gulf is long at steady bids while offers are slightly higher. Soybean spreads showed a bullish bias as the lower US Dollar supports the old crop while good looking crop conditions weigh on the new crop. Cash soybean meal offers remain quiet. Meal spreads showed a fractional bullish bias. Given the break in the US Dollar I would think US origin for soybean meal is competitive with SA origin.

Soybean charts continue to show a bullish bias. To keep the upside momentum going we need to see prices eclipse last week’s highs. The same holds true for the soybean meal market. With a little bit of imagination the last three days of activity in both the meal and soybean market resemble downflags (a short term bullish configuration). Soybean oil registers a minor sell signal today. We saw new highs for the move, lows below the previous day and a lower close (an outside day with a lower close).

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/11

July Soybeans: $8.57 – $8.75

July Soy Meal: $285.0 – $293.0

July Bean Oil: $27.60 – $28.60

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.